IEA Warns Global Oil Inventories Rapidly Depleting as Hormuz Disruption Deepens With 8.3 Million Barrels Per Day Still Shut In

The IEA's August Oil Market Report, published Wednesday, said global observed oil inventories fell by 69 million barrels in July to just under 7.9 billion barrels, the lowest level since April 2025, driven largely by a drop in oil held on the water 123. Cumulative stock draws since the war began in late February reached 410 million barrels, an average of 2.7 million barrels per day 13. Gulf oil production rose 2.5 million barrels per day in July to 23.9 million bpd but remained 8.3 million bpd below pre-war levels, while regional exports fell 2.1 million bpd to 15 million bpd after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed again and tankers and infrastructure came under attack 12. The IEA cut its 2026 demand forecast by 510,000 barrels per day to a decline of 1.6 million bpd and now projects a third-quarter supply deficit of 1.8 million bpd, the deepest quarterly deficit since fourth-quarter 2021 and more than double last month's estimate, while full-year global supply is now seen falling 4.3 million bpd to 102 million bpd 134. North Sea Dated crude traded near $92 per barrel after ranging almost $40 in July, including a spike to $105 on July 23 following the collapse of the mid-June Iran-US ceasefire 12.