Global Trade & Economics — 2026-09-28

China and US Agree to Reciprocal Tariff Cuts on 30 Billion in Goods With 90 Percent at MFN Rates

BLUFBoth governments have very likely locked in implementation of the $30 billion tariff package by December 31, 2026, with published product lists and council rules leaving only procedural ratification as the remaining variable.

China's Commerce Ministry confirmed Monday that Beijing and Washington agreed to reciprocally cut tariffs on roughly $30 billion of each other's imports, with about 90% of covered goods reverting to most-favored-nation rates 1. The deal followed economic and trade consultations held in New York and Washington from September 20-23, and both sides will implement the cuts simultaneously once domestic legal procedures are complete 1. China published the trade council's operating rules and detailed product lists Monday, showing US cuts covering Chinese toys, household appliances, baby products and household goods, while China lowers tariffs on US agricultural products, personal-care items, medical devices and coal 2. The two governments also agreed to set up a bilateral trade council, an investment council, and an agricultural working group meeting before year-end, plus an AI dialogue led by Vice Premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with a session expected before the end of November 1.

Analysis
Implementation of the reciprocal cuts will very likely proceed on schedule by December 31, 2026, since both governments have already published operating rules, product lists, and a council structure rather than leaving terms to future negotiation. The coal provision anchors Beijing's 2027-2028 import planning to the deal's survival, giving Chinese buyers a concrete incentive to see domestic procedures finalized quickly. Parallel tracks, including the agricultural working group, investment council, and AI dialogue set for before November's end, create multiple checkpoints that will surface any slippage well before year-end. We have high confidence in this assessment given the level of procedural detail both governments have already released. Domestic legal ratification, not the substance of the deal, remains the main variable to watch.

4 sources

China, US agree to reciprocal tariff cuts on $30B worth of goods - Anadolu Agency
China publishes US trade council rules, product lists for reciprocal tariff cuts - MLex
US Releases Details on $30 Billion of Goods With Tariff Cuts - Bloomberg
Here's the List of Goods the US, China Agreed on for Tariff Cuts - Bloomberg