Emerging Technology — 2026-08-18

US Tells 35 Allies to Choose Between American and Chinese AI Alliances in Pax Silica Ultimatum

BLUFWashington's binary ultimatum lacks a stated enforcement deadline, making it unlikely Kazakhstan or other dual-members will choose sides before November 18.

A draft State Department letter, prepared for the 35 signatories of the June "AI Opportunity Statement" and reviewed by Reuters, warns that continued membership in the US-led Pax Silica coalition cannot be combined with participation in China's rival World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, which Xi Jinping launched in July 12. Pax Silica, launched by Washington last year to secure supply chains for AI models, semiconductors and critical minerals amid the rivalry with Beijing, is described in the letter as "not merely a membership subscription, but a commitment" 1. The letter states "to be part of everything is to be part of nothing" and that Pax Silica membership "cannot be held alongside membership in duplicative initiatives whose expectations conflict with our own," without naming China directly 1. About two dozen countries have joined Pax Silica, including Japan, Australia and South Korea, while Kazakhstan, which holds significant critical mineral reserves, is the only country known to have joined both frameworks, prompting a US official to call it a test case for enforcement 13. China's embassy in Washington said such actions "will only stifle global AI advances and serve no one's interests," and the State Department declined to comment on the leaked draft, whose sending date remains undetermined 12.

Analysis
Kazakhstan is unlikely to withdraw from either Pax Silica or the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization by November 18. Astana has strong material incentive to hedge, given its mineral leverage with Washington and its founding role in Beijing's rival organization, and neither government has signaled a compliance deadline that would force the choice. This judgment carries low confidence, reflecting the absence of a dated US enforcement mechanism and no public indication of Kazakhstan's intent either way.
6 sources
  1. U.S. to tell allies they must pick sides in AI race with China: Reuters - CNBC
  2. US To Tell Partners To Pick Sides In AI Race With China: Reports - Outlook India
  3. US Tells 35 Allies To Choose Sides as Washington Threatens To Expel Anyone Joining Chinas Bloc - International Business Times
  4. The U.S. government wants allies to pick a side in the AI race - Fortune
  5. Exclusive-US to tell partners they must pick sides in AI race with China - Reuters
  6. Exclusive-US to tell partners they must pick sides in AI race with China - Reuters

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