Allied Intelligence — 2026-07-04

IISS Report Accuses Russia of 15-Month Drone Espionage Campaign Over RAF Bases and NATO Nuclear Sites Using Cargo Vessel

BLUFFormal public attribution to Russia remains unlikely within 60 days because the report's lone confirmed launch against 143 unresolved incidents hands allied governments the ambiguity they need to defer.

The IISS documented 144 drone incidents across 13 European states between August 2024 and February 2026, concluding it is "highly likely" Russia ran a coordinated UAV surveillance campaign launched from vessels in its sanctioned shadow fleet 1. The report ties the cargo vessel HAV Dolphin, docked near Hull, to November 2024 drone incursions over RAF Lakenheath, RAF Mildenhall, RAF Fairford and RAF Feltwell, and identifies further incidents near France's Île Longue submarine base and nuclear-linked NATO air bases in Belgium and the Netherlands, though Germany's own search of the HAV Dolphin found nothing linking the vessel to any launch 123. Investigators could not track the drones' signals or launch sites at the time, and a Whitehall source described the technology as "sophisticated" with no confirmed attribution 2. A single Swedish Navy incident in February 2026 in the Öresund Strait, in which a drone launched from the Russian vessel Zhigulevsk was tracked and jammed near the docked carrier Charles de Gaulle, is the only incident in the dataset tied to an observed launch from a named platform; Danish, Belgian (military intelligence judged only about 42 of 250 sightings legitimate) and Dutch investigations into other cited incidents found no confirmed drone wreckage or hostile aircraft, per DroneXL's review of the report 3.

Analysis
Formal NATO attribution is unlikely within the next 60 days, since the campaign's operational advantage rests on exactly the ambiguity this report cannot resolve. Moderate confidence reflects a single documented launch platform against 143 unattributed incidents, several of which national investigations have already closed without confirming drone activity. Absent a recovered airframe or intercepted command link, governments retain incentive to acknowledge incursions while withholding attribution, as UK and US officials have already done. The Zhigulevsk case sets an evidentiary bar the rest of the dataset does not meet, and that gap will likely shape how allied statements are worded through September.

3 sources

Russia's UAV Campaign Over Europe - IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies)
Russian drones spy on RAF bases and Britains nuclear weapons - GB News
IISS Report Names Real Russian Drone Incidents And Phantom Ones, And The Difference Is The Story - DroneXL