IC Operations & Tradecraft — 2026-07-25

US Intelligence Assesses New Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei Far More Inclined to Pursue Nuclear Weapons

BLUFAssessed Iranian intent has shifted toward a deliverable warhead under Mojtaba Khamenei, but concrete weaponization steps such as resumed enrichment remain unlikely by January 2027 absent fresh collection access.

A New York Times report Friday, citing officials briefed on US intelligence assessments, said Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is far more interested in acquiring a nuclear weapon than his father, who held a longstanding fatwa against weaponization 123. Officials said the assessment draws mainly on public statements and intercepted conversations from before the war, since Mojtaba has avoided public appearances and limited his communications after being wounded in the February 28 strike that killed his father 234. US intelligence assesses he seeks a warhead that could eventually be miniaturized for a long-range missile, a different objective than the crude deterrent device officials said Iran pursued late in the Biden administration 23. Separately, officials said Iran has not resumed enrichment but has moved centrifuges to the fortified underground Pickaxe Mountain complex, a transfer Israel has tracked and that some US officials assessed as an effort to preserve equipment beyond the reach of American strikes 234.

Analysis
The assessment rests on statements and intercepts collected before the war, against a leader who has since gone dark, so confirmation of concrete Iranian weaponization steps, such as resumed high-level enrichment or weapons-trigger work, is unlikely by January 31, 2027. Moderate confidence reflects an assessment built on dated collection with no fresh corroborating access to Mojtaba's current thinking. The Pickaxe Mountain centrifuge transfer indicates asset preservation rather than an active weaponization sprint, and Tehran's continued avoidance of enrichment resumption removes the clearest observable indicator Washington would need to validate the harder line now attributed to the new supreme leader. Taken together with the Air Force One proxy missile plot, which demonstrates current Iranian operational willingness even as the strategic nuclear trajectory remains unconfirmed.

5 sources

US intel said to find Mojtaba Khamenei far more inclined than father to seek nukes - Times of Israel
Iran's Mojtaba Khamenei pursuing nuclear warhead, US intelligence says - Ynetnews
US assesses Mojtaba Khamenei more interested in nuclear weapons than predecessor - report - The Jerusalem Post
US intelligence: Mojtaba Khamenei more open to build nuclear bomb - Israel National News (Arutz Sheva)
Iran's New Leader Is More Open to Pursuing a Nuclear Weapon, U.S. Intelligence Says - The New York Times