Indo-Pacific — 2026-05-15

Reflections on the May 2025 India-Pakistan Crisis

BLUFIndia's loss of five or six aircraft to a smaller Pakistani force exposes a doctrinal gap that, combined with Islamabad's low nuclear thresholds, will likely embolden Pakistani planners and constrain New Delhi's conventional deterrence in the next crisis.

India launched Operation Sindoor on May 6-7, striking alleged terrorist infrastructure in Punjab and Azad Jammu and Kashmir with Rafale jets after the April 22 Pahalgam attack; India claimed over 100 militants killed while Pakistan reported 31 civilian casualties. Pakistan responded with Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos, conducting retaliatory missile and drone strikes alongside cyber operations and naval signaling in the Arabian Sea. The May 7 aerial engagement between over 80 Indian aircraft and more than 40 Pakistani fighters produced disputed loss figures: ISSI reported six Indian jets downed, including three Rafales, while the Belfer Center cited five. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire announced May 10 paused major exchanges, though the Belfer Center reported violations along the Line of Control persisted.

Analysis
The crisis marks a structural break: multi-domain combat under a nuclear umbrella and the first jet-era dogfight between nuclear-armed states. India losing five or six aircraft against a Pakistani force half its size, figures disputed between ISSI (Pakistan's government-aligned think tank) and Western outlets, reveals a readiness gap that complicates New Delhi's conventional-deterrence posture and may embolden Pakistani planners. Pakistan's tactical nuclear weapons structurally foreclose the graduated conventional pressure India's post-Balakot strategy depends on. India's silence on U.S. mediation signals nationalism-driven constraints narrowing Modi's de-escalation room. Pakistan's near-simultaneous multi-domain retaliation points to a pre-planned architecture prepared before Indian strikes landed, suggesting Islamabad anticipated the exchange rather than reacting to it.

1 sources

Christopher Clary: Reflections on the May 2025 India-Pakistan Crisis - Stimson Center