ISW Reports Russia Suffered First Net Territory Loss Since August 2024 in April

ISW's May 2 campaign assessment reports Russian forces sustained a net territorial loss of 116 square kilometers in April. The institute attributes the reversal to Ukrainian ground counterattacks, medium-range strikes on logistics and command infrastructure, Kremlin-imposed restrictions on Telegram usage, and reported Starlink cutoffs affecting Russian units in occupied territory. Between November 2025 and April 2026, ISW estimates Russian forces captured approximately 1,443 square kilometers versus 2,368 during the same period a year earlier, with daily advance rates declining from roughly 9.8 to 2.9 square kilometers. ISW also reports Russian forces have increasingly employed infiltration tactics into contested gray zones that often leave areas outside stable control, which the institute characterizes as supporting Kremlin's cognitive warfare messaging about continued advances.