CIA Assesses Israeli Warnings of Iranian Plot to Assassinate Trump With Low Confidence as Turkish Intelligence Finds No Corroboration

Analysis
Israel's repeated warnings to Washington that Iran planned to assassinate Trump, including the pre-Ankara claim of a shoulder-launched missile threat to Air Force One, rest on evidentiary ground the CIA has assessed with low confidence in multiple instances and that Turkish intelligence found no evidence corroborating. Sourcing is strong on the sequence of events, drawing on independent US-official and Turkish-official channels, but those same channels diverge on intent: Turkish officials suspect Israel fabricated the report to derail Trump's Iran negotiations, though Ankara's own collection gaps against a compartmented plot could equally explain the non-corroboration. If fabrication holds, Israeli intelligence sharing functions as leverage to keep Washington aligned against negotiating with Tehran rather than genuine protective warning, a concern sharpened by the separate IAF Polymarket leak of classified operational timing. Absent independent US corroboration, agencies remain exposed to either underreacting to a real Iranian threat or overreacting to manufactured intelligence.