Europe — 2026-10-29

Serbia Opposition Victory Raises Hopes of EU Reset as Vučić Era Ends

BLUFBrussels will frame Serbia's student movement victory as an opening, but the coalition's internal divisions on Russia sanctions and Kosovo mean any foreign-policy pivot awaits a cabinet fight whose outcome remains unclear.

President Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat on Sunday, saying that on the basis of a sample "it is clear that we have lost these elections" and that the Student List would hold between 135 and 140 seats against 105 for his SNS, according to ABC News 1. A CESID-IPSPS representative sample showed 138 seats for the students and 104 for the SNS in the 250-seat parliament, with turnout near 70 percent, ABC reported 1. Euronews reported that the result ends 14 years of SNS rule, and that Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said "the door to the EU is open" 2. Euronews also cited the movement's September statement that Serbia will not impose sanctions on Russia, and its May memorandum rejecting Kosovo's independence 2. The Student List's published programme addresses only domestic governance, and the prime minister has not been named 12.

Analysis
Euronews and ABC report separately and agree on the concession and seat estimates, though both are secondary and neither offers official final results. Serbia's new parliament is very unlikely to be constituted and to elect a Student List government or prime minister by November 30, 2026. Confidence is high, because reporting consistently shows no prime minister named and final results uncounted. Brussels will read the result as an opening, but the movement's published positions diverge from the EU on Russia sanctions and Kosovo's independence. Its programme covers only domestic governance and its pro-European and nationalist factions coexist, so whichever camp wins the cabinet fight will set foreign policy. A purge of Vučić loyalists in the police, security services and ministries should precede any shift. The expected close contest gave way to an outright majority, which could speed seating, since only the choice of prime minister remains to bargain over. If a government is seated by November 30, EU capitals must decide sooner whether to unblock Cluster 3 and how to handle Belgrade's Russia stance. Otherwise they can hold current positions through the enlargement package.

2 sources

Serbian president concedes defeat to student-led movement in election - ABC News (Australia)
Serbia student victory raises hopes of an EU reset - Euronews