Trump Adds Israel Normalization Condition and Enrichment Ban to Saudi Nuclear Deal, Riyadh Pushes Back

Analysis
Riyadh very likely will not formally commit to Abraham Accords normalization before the 90-day congressional review concludes around October 24, since it has long tied normalization to an irreversible, time-bound path to Palestinian statehood that Israel's government rules out, leaving no near-term mechanism to satisfy Trump's condition. Confidence in this judgment is moderate, resting on convergent reporting from three independently sourcing outlets that Riyadh views the deal as already signed while Washington treats a social media post as binding policy, a split neither side has moved to resolve. Trump's post-signing demand reverses the enrichment allowance reported after the signing itself, a reversal Riyadh disputes as already settled, and may function primarily as domestic cover against nonproliferation and pro-Israel critics rather than a genuine renegotiation term. Without bundled normalization, congressional reviewers weigh the enrichment study and the missing IAEA Additional Protocol on nonproliferation grounds alone, sharpening odds of a disapproval push during the review window.