Global Economy — 2026-05-11

Iran War Draining Global Oil Reserves at Unprecedented Pace

Morgan Stanley estimates global oil stockpiles fell at roughly 4.8 million barrels per day between March 1 and April 25, exceeding any previous quarterly drawdown in IEA data, with crude accounting for nearly 60 percent of the decline. JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva told Bloomberg that OECD inventories could reach "operational stress levels" in early June and "operational minimum" floors by September if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The IEA coordinated a record 400-million-barrel emergency release across its 32 member countries; the US pledged 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve but has drawn only about 79.7 million barrels to date. Traders cited by Bloomberg flagged Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the Philippines as most at risk of critical fuel shortages within a month.

Analysis
The drawdown pace compresses the window before the blockade shifts from economic hardship to supply emergency. Per Bloomberg with named analysts, early June marks the OECD stress threshold at which industrial nations lose the buffer absorbing disruptions beyond Iran. The acute risk concentrates in non-OECD Asia: Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the Philippines face critical shortages within weeks without coordinated reserves, concentrating leverage in the states whose maritime corridors the blockade also disrupts. SPR levels falling below 350 million barrels within 90 days is unlikely given a sub-half draw on the pledged 172 million barrels. Saudi and UAE spare capacity could offset a material share within 30-60 days if diplomacy opens, meaning the drawdown rate may overstate permanent structural loss.

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