Middle East — 2026-07-25

Hormuz Transits Drop 55 Percent as Houthis Announce Saudi Maritime Blockade and Resume Red Sea Attacks

BLUFSimultaneous pressure on Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb eliminates Riyadh's Red Sea export workaround and splits Washington's deterrent posture across two adversaries operating on independent tracks.

Lloyd's List Intelligence recorded 78 Strait of Hormuz transits between July 13 and Sunday, down from 174 the prior week, with eastbound transits falling from 101 to 44 and westbound from 73 to 34 1. Iran struck an oil products tanker and a crude oil tanker off Oman and the UAE on Sunday and a third tanker off Oman on Monday, according to International Maritime Organization data, with all three vessels owned by Dynacom Tankers 1. The Houthis announced a maritime blockade of Saudi-linked shipping on July 20 in response to the July 13 bombing of Sanaa airport's runway, then claimed missile and drone strikes on the Saudi-flagged tankers Encelia and Layla on Wednesday 234; Saudi Arabia confirmed the attack on Encelia and Lloyd's List Intelligence corroborated it, while the Houthi claim on Layla remains unconfirmed by Lloyd's List 1. Brent crude rose 3.8 percent Thursday to nearly $98 a barrel, extending gains of roughly 30 percent since July 10 3, and UN Yemen envoy Hans Grundberg said Thursday he was "alarmed" by the renewed attacks and called for negotiations 2.

Analysis
The near-simultaneous contraction of Hormuz transits and the Houthi blockade announcement reopens a second maritime chokepoint just as Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export workaround, the Yanbu route, becomes exposed to direct attack. Riyadh's reliance on Yanbu to bypass Hormuz assumed Bab el-Mandeb remained passable, an assumption the confirmed Encelia strike undercuts. Brent's rise of roughly 30 percent since July 10 indicates markets are pricing sustained disruption rather than a single shock. Washington's threat to strike Iranian infrastructure for each Hormuz attack does not reach a Houthi campaign operating on a separate track, leaving the administration without a clean deterrent lever against Sanaa. Moderate confidence rests on Lloyd's transit data and confirmed tanker strikes as primary observable signals, though the attack-pause attribution remains analytically unresolved.

5 sources

Hormuz Transits Remain Low, Houthis Resume Attacks in Red Sea - USNI News
UN envoy for Yemen 'alarmed' by Houthis' Red Sea attacks, calls for talks - Al Jazeera
Houthis open new front in Iran war by targeting ships in Red Sea - Associated Press
Strait of Hormuz Brief: 21 July, 2026 - Lloyd's List Intelligence
Oil shipments are under attack on multiple fronts as fighting escalates in Red Sea, Hormuz and Black Sea - CNBC