IEA Doubles Q3 Inventory Drawdown Forecast as US-Iran War Squeezes Global Oil Supply

Analysis
Gulf exports at 82% of pre-war levels, a fourth-quarter surplus forecast and an accelerated emergency diesel stock release all push prices lower from about $93/bbl. North Sea Dated Brent is likely to fall below $85/bbl on at least one trading day within the next 30 days. Brent still sits $22/bbl above pre-war levels, and tanker attacks, constrained Russian diesel exports and a Hormuz that Tehran says stays closed could reverse the decline within days. Crude should ease faster than diesel, which stays near $180/bbl, so European and US refiners and fuel buyers face uneven relief. Confidence is low because the price path depends on shipping security, no indicator shows the Gulf export recovery will hold, and Iranian officials publicly reject talks. The IEA primary report anchors the picture, with The National and CNBC independently confirming its supply and inventory figures, while Foreign Policy Journal diverges from the primary data and carries little weight. Since April, when supply was described as the most severe shock in history, supply has recovered 5.3 mb/d and inventories have risen for the first time since June. The drop may reflect a temporary surge in exports and oil on water rather than durable rebalancing, since on-land stocks remain at their lowest since at least 2016. Below $85/bbl, importers can slow emergency draws and lock in cheaper crude, while failure to break it keeps reserve releases and hedging on the table.