Hormuz Shipping Traffic Doubles But Remains at 80 Percent of Pre-War Levels Amid Ongoing Iranian Attacks

Analysis
Traffic recovery in the strait will very unlikely reach 90 percent of pre-war volume by end of August, as renewed Iranian strikes and Washington's declaration that the ceasefire is over have reversed gains recorded through early July. Operators' shift toward transponder-off transits and the Iranian-controlled northern route, which requires Tehran's permission to cross, hands Iran de facto leverage over routing that did not exist before the ceasefire collapsed, while insurers face renewed pressure to reprice war-risk premiums after the Cyprus Prosperity strike. Moderate confidence reflects consistent stall signals across two independently tracked datasets, though the diverging recovery estimates between the outlets, which keep the story's consensus contested, may simply reflect differing vessel-class scope rather than genuine divergence in risk conditions. A recovery to 90 percent would let insurers roll back premiums and free CENTCOM escort assets; continued stalling leaves flag states weighing whether to keep the 6,000 stranded seafarers in port.