Energy & Maritime Security — 2026-08-02

Turkey and Iraq Sign One-Year Oil Pipeline Deal Ensuring 750000 Barrels Daily as Hormuz Disruption Forces Alternative Export Routes

BLUFRenewed pipeline access preserves Iraq's Mediterranean export option but flow is very unlikely to exceed 300,000 bpd by October 1, leaving Hormuz diversification aspirations unfulfilled.

Turkish state firm BOTAS and Iraq's state companies SOMO and NOC signed a one-year agreement Saturday to keep crude flowing through the Iraq-Turkiye pipeline to Ceyhan, covering a daily capacity of 750,000 barrels, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said 123. The deal renews a decades-old bilateral arrangement that lapsed the previous Monday and follows a meeting Bayraktar described as "productive" with Iraqi Oil Minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair in Ankara, days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi 1. Al-Zaidi's statement said the agreement covers a one-year period while both governments work toward a broader framework spanning oil, electricity and water resources 4. The pipeline has a maximum capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day but currently carries about 170,000 bpd, largely from Kurdistan region fields, according to Turkish data 12. Both sides describe talks on a longer-term deal, including possible extension to southern Iraqi fields, as ongoing 2.

Analysis
Turkey and Iraq's renewal secures Baghdad's only functioning Mediterranean export route but does not expand throughput, leaving Hormuz-driven diversification capacity-constrained: flow to Ceyhan is very unlikely to exceed 300,000 bpd by October 1, since Kurdistan fields supplying most current volume face recurring drone and missile strikes and no infrastructure yet links southern Iraqi crude to the line. The one-year term, rather than a long-term contract, reads as a bridge while Ankara and Baghdad negotiate a broader oil-electricity-water framework; both sides remain wary of committing to expanded southern-field access before Kurdistan revenue-sharing and transit-fee disputes are settled. Moderate confidence reflects consistent throughput figures across Turkish and Iraqi statements, corroborated independently by Bloomberg and AP, but no visibility into security conditions or investment timelines. Flow holding near current levels keeps Iraq exposed to Hormuz shipping risk and preserves Ankara's leverage over southern-field access terms in the pending talks.

6 sources

Turkiye and Iraq sign one-year oil pipeline deal amid global shift - Al Jazeera
Turkiye, Iraq sign one-year oil pipeline deal - Arab News (Reuters)
Turkey, Iraq sign one-year oil pipeline deal, Turkish energy minister says - Cyprus Mail
Iraq and Turkey strike a 1-year oil pipeline deal to boost exports during ongoing Hormuz closures - The Washington Post (AP)
Turkey Said to Extend Iraq Oil Pipeline Deal by One Year - Bloomberg
Iraq and Turkey strike a 1-year oil pipeline deal to boost exports during ongoing Hormuz closures - Associated Press