European Security — 2026-07-03

IISS Investigation Links 144 Suspicious Drone Incidents to Russian Shadow Fleet Activity Across 13 NATO States

BLUFShadow fleet vessels operating as mobile drone platforms against NATO nuclear infrastructure marks a qualitative escalation in Russian hybrid warfare that allied governments remain unwilling to publicly attribute.

The IISS published a report on July 2, shared with the Associated Press, assessing it "highly likely" that the Kremlin conducted a coordinated UAV campaign over Europe between August 2024 and February 2026, and "likely" that Russia's shadow fleet vessels served as launch and recovery platforms for the drones 12. The investigation documented 144 suspected drone sightings across 13 NATO states and Ireland, including incursions near nuclear-sharing sites hosting American B61-12 gravity bombs, France's ballistic missile submarine base at Ile Longue, and US Air Force facilities at RAF Lakenheath and Mildenhall in the UK 13. Named vessels include the cargo ship Hav Dolphin, which was docked in Hull during the November 2024 drone sightings over US and UK military bases, and the tanker Boracay, whose passage along Denmark's coast in September 2025 coincided with drone sightings that forced the closure of Copenhagen Airport; French forces later boarded the Boracay 34. IISS identified its clearest confirmed case as a February 25 incident in which Swedish forces detected and jammed a drone launched from the Russian signals-intelligence vessel Zhigulevsk toward the French carrier Charles de Gaulle during a port visit to Malmo 12. No European government has publicly attributed any drone sighting to Russia, and Dronewatch Europe disputed specific cases underpinning the report, citing Danish police findings of no connection between investigated shadow fleet vessels and drone sightings and a Belgian sighting later identified as a police helicopter 3.

Analysis
The IISS correlation, the first systematic open-source link between shadow fleet movements and drone sightings, reframes the fleet's function from sanctions evasion to dual-use collection and air-defense probing, with the late-2025 peak tracking escalated Russian rhetoric after long-range strike authorizations for Ukraine suggesting deliberate design over isolated incidents. Sourcing is structurally single-source, with outlets deriving reporting from the same IISS investigation and no independent national intelligence disclosure corroborating specific vessel-drone pairings, and no European government has attributed any sighting to Russia. Shadow fleet operations have expanded from oil-sanctions evasion into an 18-month aerial reconnaissance campaign spanning 13 NATO states, a qualitative escalation from prior single-tanker interdiction reporting. The correlation may instead simply track the fleet's traffic density in busy European waters rather than a directed campaign, leaving the attribution gap itself as the operation's chief advantage.

5 sources

Russia's UAV Campaign Over Europe - IISS
Russia's UAV Campaign Over Europe - IISS
New Report Blames Russia's Shadow Fleet for Europe Drone Incursions - The Aviationist
Russia 'likely' used shadow fleet to launch drone campaign on Europe - TVP World
Russian Shadow Ships May Have Launched Drones Over European Infrastructure - Defence Matters