Middle East — 2026-07-01

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Traffic Rebounds with 50 Percent Increase After Weekend US-Iran Strikes Pause

BLUFReturning vessels are probing the stand-down's durability with empty hulls and minimal cargo exposure, not signaling restored confidence in the corridor's safety.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose Monday for the first time since Iran's attacks on commercial vessels last week, with Kpler tracking data showing 40 vessels transiting the waterway, up from 24 on Sunday and 39 on Saturday, according to The Hill and NewsNation 12. Bloomberg reported roughly 24 commodity ships, including oil and LNG tankers and bulk carriers, crossed in both directions Monday, with the trend continuing Tuesday as a supertanker and several smaller vessels re-entered the Gulf 3. Three empty Sinokor supertankers sailed into the Gulf along Oman's coast, a Bahri-operated very large crude carrier made an inbound transit toward Ras Tanura, and a Marshall Islands-flagged Suezmax signaled from inside the Gulf for what Bloomberg described as its first entry since the war began in late February 3. OilPrice.com, citing the same Kpler data, put total Hormuz traffic at 90 percent below normal despite the uptick 4. WTI crude traded around $70-71 per barrel and Brent around $73-75 as the rebound followed a weekend "stand-down" agreement between the US and Iran after strikes on Qatar- and Singapore-flagged vessels and US bases in Gulf states 12.

Analysis
Hormuz traffic rose Monday for the first time since last week's Iranian strikes, but the mostly empty supertankers and first-time transits since February indicate operators are testing the weekend stand-down rather than confirming its durability, with volume still far below pre-war levels. Moderate confidence, since Bloomberg and Kpler vessel-tracking data converge on the trend but diverging counts across outlets reflect echo of a single feed rather than independent corroboration. Stable WTI and Brent prices suggest markets are already pricing a sustained lull rather than renewed closure risk. Some owners moving tankers now may be capitalizing on elevated freight rates during the lull rather than signaling confidence the ceasefire holds, meaning the composition of returning vessels, not the raw count, is the better signal of whether the corridor is durably reopened.

5 sources

Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic rebounds after strikes between Iran, US - The Hill
Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic rebounds after strikes between Iran, US - NewsNation
Hormuz Traffic Climbs as Supertankers Sail Into Persian Gulf - Bloomberg (via gCaptain)
Hormuz Tanker Traffic Recovers as Tensions Ease - OilPrice.com
Hormuz Traffic Climbs as Supertankers Sail Into Persian Gulf - Bloomberg