New Middle Eastern Quadrilateral Security Bloc Takes Shape Among Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt
IISS analysis published in May documents three foreign ministers' meetings since March 19 among Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, preceded by a deputy foreign ministers' session in Islamabad. The first ministerial convened on the sidelines of an Arab and Islamic foreign ministers' gathering in Riyadh that condemned Iranian attacks on Gulf states; subsequent meetings in Islamabad and Antalya produced collective support for Pakistan's mediation effort between Washington and Tehran. Turkish Foreign Minister
Three foreign ministers' meetings and a deputy-level session in six weeks signal deliberate institutionalization, per IISS analysis, filling a void the Arab League, GCC, and transactional Washington cannot. Nuclear deterrence, Gulf energy, Suez access, and NATO membership have already moved outcomes on Gaza and Syrian sanctions relief. Pakistan withheld aircraft until after the ceasefire; Egypt provided no assistance despite a 1950 treaty, both confirming bilateral risk calculus will consistently override collective commitments. Turkey's unsigned defense pact bid and Qatar's orientation add expansion momentum without binding architecture. The UAE-Israel counter-alignment, anchored by Iron Dome deployment to Abu Dhabi, contests Red Sea influence. The grouping may revert to divergent bilaterals once the Iran crisis recedes.