Middle East — 2026-10-01

US Military Completes Withdrawal From Iraq After Two Decades Leaving Power Vacuum for Iran and Islamic State

BLUFBaghdad is unlikely to formally extend the militia disarmament deadline by end of October, leaving Iraq's security gap to widen under quiet de facto slippage rather than declared policy.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the last US and coalition troops left Erbil Air Base on September 30, and CENTCOM said the anti-ISIS task force relocated to Jordan while hundreds of US troops remain in Syria 1. NPR and CENTCOM put the Erbil force at about 1,500 personnel before departure, and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi declared a two-day holiday 2. Parnell said responsibility for ISIS remnants and Iran-aligned militias now rests with Baghdad, with the US providing training and intelligence support 1. NPR reported that Zaidi agreed in July to disarm Iran-backed militias by September 30, has asked to extend that to June, and that three major militias refuse to surrender weapons 2. Kurdish officials criticized the exit as leaving the Kurdistan Region exposed to Iranian strikes and ISIS, Al Jazeera reported 1. Foreign Policy noted that seven of 18 US service members killed in the Iran war died in Iraq 3.

Analysis
A formal extension of Iraq's militia disarmament deadline to June 2027 is unlikely between October 1 and October 31. Baghdad has requested the delay, but Washington has only signaled acceptance informally, and a formal act would concede the July commitment failed just as US forces leave. Three major Iran-backed militias refuse to surrender weapons, and withdrawal removes their stated grievance without removing their arms. Confidence is moderate: reporting on the request is consistent, but neither capital shows any signal of a formal decision, and most coverage traces to the same Pentagon and CENTCOM statements. Quiet slippage is more probable than a declared extension, and Rubio's remarks suggest the deadline may simply be treated as superseded. Without a formal date, Washington and Kurdish leaders cannot plan around a June 2027 horizon, and the lapsed deadline remains grounds for renewed US pressure or strikes if attacks on US assets continue.

4 sources

Pentagon says US troop withdrawal from Iraq is complete - Al Jazeera
The U.S. military withdraws from Iraq over 2 decades after its invasion - NPR
U.S. Forces Leave Behind a Power Vacuum in Iraq - Foreign Policy
US forces complete departure from Iraq as anti-Islamic State mission in Iraq ends - FDD's Long War Journal