Russia-Ukraine War — 2026-04-15

Easter Ceasefire Expires After 11,000 Alleged Violations as Drone Strikes Resume

Putin's 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire expired Monday with Ukraine claiming nearly 11,000 Russian violations including 1,329 FPV drone strikes, and Russia alleging 1,971 Ukrainian breaches including artillery strikes and a drone attack on a petrol station in Lgov, Kursk region that injured three people including a baby. Drone and missile strikes resumed immediately upon expiration, preceding the massive 324-drone Russian barrage launched overnight April 14-15. France24 reported only a brief lull in activity along the 1,200-kilometer front.

Analysis
The 11,000-versus-1,971 violation disparity is unadjudicable and reflects competing information warfare postures rather than ground truth, but the operationally significant datum is the immediate post-expiration 324-drone barrage, the largest documented overnight strike of 2026, which implies Russia used the ceasefire window to stage assets rather than pause. FPV operators at the tactical level may instead have continued firing without centralized control, making the violation counts a C2 artifact rather than evidence of strategic bad faith by either party.

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