Adversary Intelligence — 2026-06-19

IRGC Establishes Covert Iraqi Cells to Attack Gulf States Hosting US Forces

BLUFIRGC-directed cells operating outside established militia networks will likely strike Gulf-hosted US facilities again within six months, with Baghdad unable to detect or disrupt the command chain.

Reuters, citing eight Iraqi sources including two military officials, one security official, and five militia commanders, reports the IRGC established three to four covert cells of roughly 10 elite Shi'ite fighters each drawn partly from Islamic Resistance in Iraq membership, bypassing established militia networks and reporting directly to the IRGC 123. The cells launched at least seven drone attacks between April 20 and May 17 from desert sites near Basra and Samawa, targeting Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base and military terminal at the international airport, where US forces are stationed, as well as sites in Saudi Arabia and the UAE 23. Iraqi officials are investigating whether the groups conducted a May 17 attack that caused a fire at the UAE's Barakah Nuclear Power Plant; Saudi Arabia said it intercepted three drones from Iraqi airspace that day 3. Iraq PM Ali Al-Zaidi condemned the attacks as criminal acts and pledged a joint inquiry with Gulf states; Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE summoned Iraq's envoys in April to protest the strikes 3.

Analysis
Tehran's exclusion of proxy activity from the interim nuclear agreement removes the most plausible external brake on continued operations, and IRGC cells operating outside established militia command chains are structurally invisible to Baghdad's investigative apparatus. Attacks against Gulf installations hosting US forces are likely to continue within six months on that basis alone. The cells may instead represent Iraqi Shi'ite initiative operating under IRGC nominal authority rather than direct command, with militia sources attributing strikes to Tehran to deflect domestic disarmament pressure. Confidence is low: all sourcing traces to a single Reuters exclusive with eight unnamed Iraqi sources and no corroborating signals collection. If the Barakah targeting is confirmed, the threat category expands to critical energy infrastructure, converting a temporary air defense surge into a permanent baseline requirement.

4 sources

Exclusive: Irans Revolutionary Guards set up covert Iraqi cells to attack Gulf neighbors - Al-Monitor
Exclusive-Iran's Revolutionary Guards Set up Covert Iraqi Cells to Attack Gulf Neighbors, Sources Say - Reuters
Iran's Revolutionary Guards set up covert Iraqi cells to attack Gulf neighbors, sources say - The Jerusalem Post
Iran's Revolutionary Guard set up Iraqi cells to attack Gulf neighbors, sources say - The Times of Israel