US and Iran Sign Agreement to End War, Reopen Strait of Hormuz and Extend Ceasefire

Analysis
Iran's silence on the digital signature and its foreign ministry's insistence on transit fees signal more friction than Washington's framing suggests, but the formal signing likely proceeds by June 20, as the political cost of collapse now exceeds that of proceeding for both capitals. High confidence rests on converging public commitments from both governments, though the toll divergence between Vance's toll-free commitment and Tehran's fee demand may indicate Iran signed with strait administration terms still open, creating conditions for the ceremony to collapse or slip. All reporting draws exclusively from official statements, leaving the MoU text unverified by any independent channel. Mine-sweeping requires 40 to 50 days before major insurers permit transit, meaning shipping companies and energy insurers must weigh whether to begin re-entry planning ahead of Friday or hold for confirmed text and mine-clearance certification.