India-Pakistan Ceasefire Holds One Year After 88-Hour War but Underlying Tensions Remain Unresolved

Analysis
We assess it is likely the ceasefire holds through the second year of the ceasefire, by May 10 2027, sustained by deterrence shock rather than diplomatic resolution. India's strikes on Pakistani airbases at Chaklala, Sargodha, and Rahimyar Khan crossed a threshold the two countries had avoided for decades, signaling that India will now hold Pakistani conventional military assets at risk in response to proxy-enabled attacks. That signal constrains Islamabad's calculus more than any previous standoff. Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Hizbul Mujahideen retain organizational capacity despite the degradation of nine camps, and Pakistan's DGMO sought de-escalation only after Indian strikes on the airbases, not after the militant camps were struck. Defence Minister Singh's framing of the operation as 'halted, not ended' preserves India's political space to resume military action after any future provocation, hardening the deterrence posture at the cost of leaving both sides in a formally unresolved standoff.