Middle East — 2026-09-02

Experts Testify Houthi Campaign and Ceasefire Failed to Deter Red Sea Attacks as Hormuz Adds Leverage

BLUFFailed deterrence and Iran's Hormuz closure make Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping very likely within the next month, with no diplomatic channel positioned to intervene.

At a House Foreign Affairs Committee Middle East subcommittee hearing on Tuesday, Nadwa Al-Dawsari of the Middle East Institute and Allison Minor of the Atlantic Council's Project for Middle East Integration testified that the Trump administration's bombing campaign against the Houthis and the subsequent ceasefire have failed to deter the group from attacking Red Sea shipping 12. Both witnesses said U.S. and Israeli airstrikes disrupted but did not eliminate Houthi capabilities, with Al-Dawsari stating the group used the ceasefire period to rebuild, recruit more fighters and prepare for further conflict 12. Rep. Bill Keating (D-MA) and Minor noted the U.S. has no ambassador posted to Yemen, Saudi Arabia or the UAE, and Minor said Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has given the Houthis added leverage 1. Al-Dawsari and Minor urged Washington to fill the vacant special envoy for Yemen post and to support the Yemeni government and regional allies with military, economic and political assistance rather than pursue further U.S. military intervention 12.

Analysis
Houthi attacks on Red Sea or Gulf of Aden shipping will very likely resume within the next month: testimony confirms the group used the ceasefire to rebuild and recruit rather than de-escalate, and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz gives Sana'a a second chokepoint to exploit, raising rather than lowering the payoff for renewed strikes. Vacant ambassadorships in Sanaa, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi and an unfilled special envoy post leave no diplomatic channel able to press for restraint before that window closes. Moderate confidence rests on consistent testimony from two independent expert witnesses, though sourcing traces to a single congressional hearing with no independent operational corroboration, and the rearmament could equally reflect organizational consolidation after years of war footing rather than coordination timed to the Hormuz closure. A confirmed attack would strengthen the case in Congress for funding a Yemen envoy and expanded Saudi-partnered support; a quiet month lets the administration justify continued reliance on the ceasefire without new commitments.

4 sources

Experts testify Trumps Houthi campaign and ceasefire have failed to deter Red Sea attacks - Jewish Insider
US must support Yemeni government and regional allies to counter Houthis, experts say - The National
House Foreign Affairs Committee holds hearing on countering Houthis in the Red Sea - WKNO FM
Countering Houthi Terrorism: Protecting U.S. Interests and Security in the Red Sea - U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa