Energy & Trade — 2026-04-07

Oil Prices Spike Above $115 Per Barrel as Trump Hormuz Deadline Looms

Brent crude rose to $112 per barrel and WTI climbed to $115.48 on Monday, up 60% since the Iran war began, as markets reacted to Trump's threat to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. J.P. Morgan warned prices could reach $150 if supply flows remain disrupted through mid-May. Nearly 1 billion barrels of crude and refined products will be lost by month-end according to TD Securities, with daily tanker traffic through Hormuz collapsed from 138 vessels pre-war to approximately five.

Analysis
At $115+/barrel with J.P. Morgan projecting $150 if disruptions persist through mid-May, the economic pressure on all parties is accelerating. The collapse from 138 daily transits to approximately five represents a near-total commercial shutdown of the world's most critical oil chokepoint. Whether economic pain reaches a threshold that forces either a ceasefire or a US military campaign to forcibly reopen the strait remains the central variable.
2 sources
  1. Oil prices rise as Trump warns Iran to open Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday or face hell - CNBC
  2. Yes, We Have a Lot of Oil. Opening the Hormuz Strait Still Matters - DTN Progressive Farmer

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