Ukrainian Domestic — 2026-05-21

Only 10 Percent of Ukrainians Want Wartime Elections as Democratic Confidence Slips 18 Points

BLUFUkrainian consensus against wartime voting shields Kyiv from near-term legitimacy attacks, but the 18-point slide in democratic confidence signals a delayed reckoning once martial law lifts in 2027.

The KIIS November–December 2025 Omnibus survey found 10% of Ukrainians favor elections before a ceasefire, 23% after a ceasefire with security guarantees, and 59% only after a full peace agreement 12. A separate IRI poll, conducted March 13–18, 2026 among 3,000 respondents (±1.8 pts), recorded 61% opposing presidential elections while the war is ongoing 3. Ukraine's parliament extended martial law on April 30 for the 19th time, prohibiting a national vote until at least August 2, 2026 1. Razumkov Center polling from November 2025, cited at the Lviv Media Forum on May 15, placed Ukrainian confidence in democracy as the best system at 55.5%, down 18 points from a wartime high of 73% in May 2023, though 87% still describe a democratic system as good for Ukraine, a figure flat since 2017 1.

Analysis
The cross-factional rejection of wartime elections, stable even among Ukrainians who completely distrust Zelenskyy, 72% of whom still oppose an immediate vote, strips ballot access as a viable external pressure point against Kyiv. The concurrent erosion in democratic confidence, down 18 points from May 2023 per Razumkov Center data corroborated only by Ukraine-based sources, accumulated across two and a half years of conflict rather than spiking around a single event. The cross-party legal framework places an electoral reckoning no earlier than early 2027. The confidence decline may instead reflect cyclical frustration, including the Energoatom scandal and Yermak's departure, rather than structural retreat, a reading Zelenskyy's trust recovery to roughly 63% by mid-December 2025 supports.

4 sources

10% now, 23% after a ceasefire, 59% only at peace — Ukraine verdict on a wartime vote - Euromaidan Press
One in 10 Ukrainians believe elections should be held before ceasefire – KIIS survey - Interfax Ukraine
IRI Survey Shows Ukrainians are Confident in Victory Against Russia and Oppose Presidential Elections while the War is Ongoing - International Republican Institute
Trust in President V. Zelenskyy, attitude towards holding of elections, perception of the fight against corruption and the country's movement towards democracy - Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)