Jihadist-Tuareg Offensive Seizes Kidal and Kills Mali Defense Minister as Russian Forces Withdraw

Analysis
The negotiated Russian exit, brokered by Algeria, a regional rival, exposes Africa Corps as incapable of holding urban terrain against organized multi-actor pressure, a force that required an adversary to arrange its own withdrawal. Camara's death severs the primary institutional link between Bamako and Moscow at the moment the partnership most needs rebuilding. Corroborated across three outlets, JNIM-CMA expansion to a second northern city within 60 days is roughly even: the alliance has historically fractured within weeks of battlefield success, and FAMa Bayraktar strikes have reversed comparable seizures before. Moscow may instead read the exit as a repositioning, with Algerian mediation preserving the bilateral framework for operations from a different base.