Indo-Pacific — 2026-11-13

China's Liaoning Carrier Group Conducts Western Pacific Area-Denial Drills as Taiwan Warns of Blockade Threat

BLUFChina's PLA Eastern Theater Command is very unlikely to announce a named joint military exercise around Taiwan between November 13 and November 30, as Beijing balances visible coercion with restraint ahead of the Shenzhen APEC summit and Taiwan's local elections.

Taiwan's Defence Minister Wellington Koo told journalists in Taipei on November 10 that Chinese naval forces, including the Liaoning carrier group, are conducting anti-access and area-denial exercises in the Western Pacific, according to Defence Matters 1 citing Reuters 2. A senior Taiwan security official told Reuters the unannounced drills involved coordinated forces from China's eastern, northern and southern theatre commands and were larger than Justice Mission 2025, and that a Chinese submarine launched an intercontinental ballistic missile from the Yellow Sea during the exercise 3. Taiwanese officials reported more than 100 Chinese naval and coastguard vessels massed in the region in early November, though the scale decreased to around 70 vessels within the first island chain this week 13. China has not announced an exercise corresponding to Taiwan's assessment, and Beijing previously described Liaoning's Western Pacific activity as routine training for long-range and open-ocean combat 1.

Analysis
Beijing appears to be using far-seas carrier training to rehearse operating beyond the First Island Chain, while Taipei labels it area denial and blockade preparation. The 100-plus vessels reported amount to a surge in coastguard and naval presence, not a declared campaign. Confidence is low because everything traces to one Reuters-sourced account carried secondhand by Defence Matters, China has confirmed no exercise, and no mobilization indicators for a named drill have been observed. China's Eastern Theater Command is very unlikely to announce a named joint exercise around Taiwan between November 13 and November 30, 2026. The Shenzhen APEC summit and Taiwan's local elections give Beijing reason to keep pressure visible but below that threshold. Taipei's framing may also be meant to draw international attention before its elections, and the activity may simply be the routine training Beijing describes. Since October 23, Taiwan's defence minister has gone public with the area-denial characterization. A named exercise would prompt Taiwan, Japan and the United States to raise alert levels and reposition surveillance and shipping-protection assets. Absent one, they hold current posture.

3 sources

China’s Liaoning Carrier Conducts Western Pacific Area-Denial Drills as Taiwan Warns of Blockade Threat - Defence Matters
Taiwan Says China Is Conducting 'Area Denial' Drills in Western Pacific - U.S. News & World Report (Reuters)
China stages unannounced Pacific drills in ‘silent intimidation’ of Taiwan, officials say - Reuters