Middle East — 2026-06-13

US and Iran Expected to Sign Peace Agreement Sunday Covering Hormuz Reopening and Nuclear Program

BLUFTehran's public rejection of Trump's Sunday timeline while confirming the framework's existence makes a signed agreement genuinely uncertain within the next two weeks, with last-mile assurances rather than structural terms driving the delay.

Trump posted Saturday on Truth Social that the deal will be signed Sunday and Hormuz will open "to all" immediately after, but Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said via state media it "will not be tomorrow" and could come only "in the coming days." 12 Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Saturday that Pakistan is preparing for an electronic signing ceremony with technical-level talks to follow next week. 34 A senior U.S. administration official briefing reporters on condition of anonymity said the emerging deal would initiate removal of Iran's highly enriched uranium over a 60-day technical window, with Iranian FM Araghchi separately confirming Friday that nuclear terms would be finalized in that same period. 3 Three unnamed regional officials told the Washington Post the agreement also includes phased sanctions relief and release of frozen Iranian assets. 4

Analysis
Tehran's rejection of Trump's Sunday signing deadline, while declining to deny the framework's existence, leaves a formal agreement within 14 days genuinely uncertain. Pakistan's preparation of an electronic signing ceremony confirms an agreed text is close and the mediation channel is active. Tehran attributes the delay to U.S. hesitation, pointing to last-mile assurances rather than structural disagreement as the sticking point. The Sunday announcement may be a pressure tactic to accelerate Iranian internal ratification rather than a genuine read of diplomatic readiness. Confidence is moderate, resting on official statements from both governments rather than direct access to negotiating texts. Shipping operators routing tankers around Hormuz must decide within days whether to resume Strait transit or lock in Cape of Good Hope costs if the deal slips.

5 sources