Allied Intelligence — 2026-05-22

Russian Fighters Made Dangerous Intercepts of RAF RC-135W Rivet Joint SIGINT Aircraft Over Black Sea

BLUFRussia will almost certainly stage additional dangerous intercepts of NATO reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea before November 30, 2026, with the Kh-31 carriage signaling deliberate escalation beyond standard harassment.

The UK Ministry of Defence revealed on May 20 that Russian fighters conducted the most dangerous intercepts of an RAF Rivet Joint since 2022, targeting the unarmed RC-135W operated by 51 Squadron from RAF Waddington in international airspace over the Black Sea in April 123. In the first intercept, a Russian Su-35 flew close enough to trigger the Rivet Joint's emergency systems and disable its autopilot; in the second, an Su-27 made six passes within six meters of the aircraft's nose 123. The Aviationist noted the Su-35 involved, serial RF-81718, was carrying a Kh-31PM anti-radiation missile alongside its air-to-air payload, a weapon designed to home on radar and electronic emitters, a particularly notable armament given the SIGINT nature of the intercepted aircraft 4. UK Defence Secretary John Healey condemned the actions as "dangerous and unacceptable," and MoD and Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office officials formally démarched the Russian Embassy in London 12.

Analysis
Russia will almost certainly conduct additional dangerous intercepts of NATO reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea before November 30, 2026. Moscow has shown no threshold at which formal protests change its calculus, and the Kh-31PM anti-radiation missile carried by the intercepting Su-35, confirmed by The Aviationist from imagery analysis, signals deliberate escalatory intent beyond standard intercept doctrine. The intercepts may instead reflect squadron-level pilot discretion rather than centrally directed Kremlin escalation, consistent with 2022 precedent in which aircrew acted without clear authorization. Analytic confidence is low, resting on episodic public disclosure rather than systematic collection. If the pattern holds, NATO air planners face a structural decision on whether permanent fighter escorts for Black Sea RC-135 sorties become standing policy rather than discretionary protection.

5 sources

Russian fighter jets intercept RAF reconnaissance aircraft within metres over Black Sea - Forces News
UK condemns Moscow for 'dangerous and unacceptable' intercept of RAF Rivet Joint - FlightGlobal
U.K. spy plane 'dangerously intercepted' by Russian military jets over Black Sea, defense ministry says - CBS News
Russian Fighters Made More Dangerous Intercepts of a Royal Air Force RC-135 over the Black Sea - The Aviationist
RAF aircraft dangerously intercepted by Russian jets over Black Sea - UK Ministry of Defence (GOV.UK)