Global Economy — 2026-09-11

Strait of Hormuz Vessel Transits Fall to Seven Per Day from Pre-War Average of 125

BLUFThursday's drop to seven transits is a one-day trough, not evidence of further closure; daily volumes are unlikely to hold below ten through September 25 as routine commercial traffic persists.

Vessel transits at the Strait of Hormuz fell to seven on Thursday from 11 the previous day, well below the 10-day average of 15, according to preliminary Kpler ship-tracking data reported by Reuters 1, a figure that excludes any vessels that crossed with transponders switched off to avoid detection. Two Panamax ships exited the strait, one carrying fertilizer and the other in ballast, while five vessels entered: a Panamax and a Supramax both carrying dry bulk cargo, a Handysize ship laden with steel, a Handysize vessel carrying grains, and a medium-range tanker loaded with dirty petroleum products 12. Before the war with Iran began on February 28, the strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels daily, accounting for roughly 20 percent of the world's daily crude oil and LNG supply 123. Arab News reported that a Qatar-linked tanker, Al Marrouna, exited the strait on Thursday carrying the first known LNG shipment aboard a Qatar-linked vessel from Ras Laffan to Pakistan since late July 3.

Analysis
Sustained below-ten transits through September 25 is unlikely. Thursday's seven-vessel count is a one-day trough within a 10-day average of 15, not a closure signal, and with five of seven vessels entering and cargo spanning steel, grain, fertilizer, and refined products, routine commercial traffic still clears the strait despite the standing U.S. blockade on Iranian crude. The drop reverses last week's rebuilding trend but may simply reflect routine scheduling volatility in a chokepoint that has swung between seven and above fifteen transits within the same window rather than a new deterrent action. Confidence is low, given reliance on a single ship-tracking provider and no independent signal on Iran's intent to escalate before the window closes. Insurers and Gulf exporters should sustain elevated war-risk premiums and rerouting arrangements until counts hold above ten, which would let shippers and naval escorts stand down.

5 sources

Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows - Reuters
Seven vessels transit Strait of Hormuz on September 10 — agency - TASS
Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows - Arab News
Hormuz Shipping Traffic Falls to Single Digits - Asharq Al-Awsat
Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows - Reuters