Zelenskyy Skips Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk Amid Deepening Diplomatic Spat with Poland Over Volhynia-Linked Military Unit

Analysis
Zelenskyy's absence from Gdańsk removes the highest-visibility forum for bilateral repair, and a formal initiative to resolve the UPA naming before August 31 is very unlikely. Moderate confidence rests on observable posture: Zelenskyy has not moved to reverse the naming, Nawrocki operates independently of Tusk's conference, and award returns by three former presidents locked Ukrainian public posture before any diplomatic channel engaged. That cascade confirms the dispute hardened beyond symbolic protest after the revocation. Tusk's calls carry no authority over the actors controlling both decisive variables, leaving the rift without a resolution mechanism. Svyrydenko's substitution may instead reflect deliberate de-escalation, keeping Ukraine represented at PM level without a televised confrontation. EU partners routing reconstruction coordination through Warsaw must account for reduced Polish-Ukrainian political bandwidth precisely when reconstruction architecture requires bilateral commitment.