Middle East — 2026-10-28

Israeli Election Exit Polls Show Deadlock Between Netanyahu and Eisenkot Blocs

BLUFIt is very unlikely that either bloc secures 61 seats in certified results by November 4, leaving Israel headed for prolonged coalition gridlock or yet another election.

Israeli broadcasters' exit polls after voting closed on Tuesday showed neither bloc near the 61 seats needed; Channel 12's updated poll gave Netanyahu's bloc 52 seats and Eisenkot's 49, with Arab parties at 19 12. Channels 11 and 13 put both blocs at 51 2, while NBC reported an earlier Channel 12 projection of 50 for Netanyahu and 52 for Eisenkot 3, and pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 projected 60 versus 43 4. Likud is projected at 25-27 seats against 21-23 for Eisenkot's Yashar 2. Both leaders claimed the lead; Netanyahu called for a "national right-wing government" and rejected reliance on Arab parties, while Eisenkot said the public voted for change 5. Turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 1999, per the Central Elections Committee 3, and official results are due by November 4 4.

Analysis
Every mainstream broadcaster exit poll puts both blocs between 49 and 53 seats, with Arab parties at 17 to 19, and only pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 diverges. It is very unlikely that final certified results published by November 4 give either the Netanyahu bloc or the Eisenkot bloc, excluding Arab parties, 61 or more seats. Lieberman and Bennett reject Arab-party support and Netanyahu rules it out for himself, so coalition talks will outlast the count, with Netanyahu staying caretaker prime minister while President Herzog weighs who gets the first mandate. Eisenkot, who split the anti-Netanyahu field with Lapid and Bennett in July, now leads a bloc roughly level with Netanyahu's, which fell from 68 seats to about 52. Late ballots, including soldiers' votes, could still lift Netanyahu's bloc closer to 61 than the mainstream polls show, given Channel 14's 60-seat projection and the overnight shift in his favor. Confidence is high because four outlets independently report the same range and no Channel 11, 12 or 13 poll shows either bloc within eight seats of 61. Governments and markets should plan for a protracted caretaker government and a possible April re-run, not a quick transfer of power.

5 sources

Five key takeaways from Israels parliamentary elections - Al Jazeera
Israeli election results: No clear winner as exit polls suggest rebuke for Netanyahu - CNN
Exit polls indicate no clear winner in Israeli election - NBC News
Israel election 2026 exit polls: Full results - Israel Hayom
Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs deadlocked and shy of a majority - Axios