Iran NPT Withdrawal Debate Intensifies as SNSC Secretary Issues Unprecedented Threat

Analysis
Iran's parliament is very unlikely to pass legislation mandating NPT withdrawal by October 31, 2026. Confidence is high, because the Supreme National Security Council lacks consensus, most reformists and centrists still oppose exit, and Majles president Ghalibaf has not advanced the pending bill. Rezaei's threat is a signal, not a decision, since no earlier council secretary has made one and the council, not the Majles, sets nuclear policy. Moscow's objection and Tehran's reliance on Russian and Chinese UN Security Council vetoes also constrain exit. The threat has shifted from a May condition tied to a US strike to an unconditional warning. Sourcing is thin: two secondary outlets, with no primary Iranian or IAEA documents. Rezaei may instead be preparing real exit, with the bill as its vehicle. A Ghalibaf floor referral or council endorsement would be the first sign of movement, and Washington and European states would then need treaty-exit contingency plans.