Defense & Geopolitics — 2026-03-18

IISS Analysis: Gulf States' Offensive Options Against Iran as Energy War Escalates

IISS assessed GCC military options following Iran's strikes on Ras Laffan, Ras Tanura, and Kuwaiti infrastructure. The analysis notes the UAE has absorbed 1,000+ Iranian attacks since Feb 28 -- the highest volume among Gulf states. The question of whether GCC states transition from defensive posture to active belligerency represents a potential escalation tripwire that could transform the bilateral US-Iran conflict into a regional war.

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