European Security — 2026-05-28

Turkey Constitutional Crisis Deepens as Erdogan Uses Courts and Police to Dismantle CHP Opposition

BLUFErdoğan has effectively captured Turkey's main opposition, and Özel is unlikely to regain the CHP chairmanship before May 2027, clearing a plausible parliamentary path to another presidential term.

On May 21, an Ankara appeals court annulled the CHP's 2023 leadership congress, suspended party chair Özgür Özel and his executive board, and provisionally reinstated former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, citing alleged vote-buying among delegates 12. Foreign Policy reports the ruling exceeds the court's legal authority and follows the March 2025 imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the CHP's nominated 2028 presidential candidate 12. When Özel's faction refused to vacate party headquarters, Kılıçdaroğlu's representatives formally requested police enforcement; riot police cleared the building using tear gas and rubber bullets, according to Time 2. Human Rights Watch, as cited by Time, described the intervention as an attempt to "sideline the main political opposition in ways that profoundly undermine civil and political rights and Türkiye's democratic process" 2.

Analysis
Özel is unlikely to recover the CHP chairmanship or physical control of party headquarters by May 2027. State enforcement, an environment hostile to any breakaway, and a pending immunity file exposing Özel to prosecution the moment he exits the party have closed every conventional path back. Moderate confidence reflects consistent cross-source reporting on institutional mechanics, with both sources secondary and no primary access to government deliberations. The main uncertainty is whether voter backlash and a collaborator label push Kılıçdaroğlu to call an early extraordinary congress, which would open a negotiated path for Özel's faction. Kılıçdaroğlu-aligned deputies already supply AKP a plausible path to the constitutional supermajority required for another Erdoğan term. EU and NATO governments weighing migration and security partnerships must judge whether any credible internal check on Erdoğan survives, and whether a restored Özel is a threshold worth anchoring conditionality to.

2 sources

Erdogan Is Forcibly Designing His Own Opposition - Foreign Policy
What to Know About Türkiye's Deepening Democratic Crisis - Time