Energy & Markets — 2026-06-10
China Crude Oil Imports Fall to Eight-Year Low in May as Iran War Squeezes Persian Gulf Supply
BLUFBeijing's strategy of absorbing Hormuz disruption through stockpile drawdowns and refinery cuts will likely force a choice between domestic fuel rationing and price-spiking spot purchases within months.
Chinese customs data showed crude imports fell to 7.8 million barrels per day in May, the lowest since October 2017, down from 11.6 million bpd across 2025
Analysis
Beijing is managing the Hormuz shock through refinery cuts and inventory drawdowns rather than bidding for replacement barrels, a posture that suppresses the price signal that would otherwise pull non-Gulf crude to market. Convergent primary reporting from Bloomberg and Nikkei Asia, corroborated by official customs figures, supports moderate confidence that June imports willlikely remain below 9.0 million barrels per day when July data releases. Domestic economic deceleration is a contributing factor, meaning any post-war import rebound is structurally capped below 2025 levels. The SPR buffer is finite. When it thins, Beijing faces fuel rationing or large-scale spot purchases at elevated prices, immediately repricing the H2 2026 demand outlook for non-Gulf suppliers and energy traders.
Beijing is managing the Hormuz shock through refinery cuts and inventory drawdowns rather than bidding for replacement barrels, a posture that suppresses the price signal that would otherwise pull non-Gulf crude to market. Convergent primary reporting from Bloomberg and Nikkei Asia, corroborated by official customs figures, supports moderate confidence that June imports will
4 sources
- China's Oil Imports Plunge to Eight-Year Low on War Disruptions -
Bloomberg - China's 8-year-low oil imports cushion Iran war shock to global prices -
Nikkei Asia - China Crude Imports Hit Eight-Year Low As Iran War Squeezes Persian Gulf Supply -
Foreign Policy Journal - China's Oil Imports Plummet to Eight-Year Low -
OilPrice.com