Iran Conflict — 2026-04-06
Israel Assesses Iran Still Holds Over 1,000 Ballistic Missiles Capable of Reaching Israeli Territory
Israeli Air Force intelligence assesses Iran retains over 1,000 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel, down from an estimated 2,500 at the war's start. Iran has fired over 500 missiles at Israel, with the daily rate declining from 90 on day one to 10-15 in recent weeks. US intelligence indicates approximately half of Iran's missile launchers remain intact despite five weeks of strikes. Hezbollah's arsenal in Lebanon is separately assessed at 10,000 shorter-range rockets.
Analysis
The 60% attrition rate (2,500 to 1,000) after 37 days of air strikes suggests the remaining arsenal is more survivable, whethermobile launchers , tunnel-based , or distributed, making further degradation increasingly expensive per unit destroyed. The IDF intelligence officer's on-the-record disclosure of the 1,000 figure may be intended to justify continued strikes.
The 60% attrition rate (2,500 to 1,000) after 37 days of air strikes suggests the remaining arsenal is more survivable, whether