Indo-Pacific — 2026-05-11

High Hopes in Beijing Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

China's Foreign Ministry confirmed May 10 that Trump will make a state visit to Beijing from May 13 to 15, rescheduled after the Iran war forced postponement of an April visit. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi raised Taiwan in a preparatory call with Secretary Rubio, urging the US to "make the right choices" on the island; Rubio said US policy is unchanged. The Stimson Center reported that Chinese officials have publicly pressed for new US declaratory language opposing Taiwan independence and signaled willingness to offer concessions on trade and Iran in exchange. Iran's foreign minister visited Beijing the week prior, and US Treasury sanctions against five Chinese refiners for processing Iranian crude remain in force, with Beijing directing firms to ignore them.

Analysis
China has converted Taiwan into a bargaining chip: Beijing's published range of desired US declaratory language, from "does not support independence" to "supports peaceful unification," is an opening bid calibrated for Trump's transactional style. Rubio's commitment that US policy is unchanged provides insulation but does not bind Trump; Taiwan's legislature approved only $25 billion of a $40 billion defense request, narrowing Taipei's counter-leverage. On Iran, Beijing positions as indispensable go-between while privately disclaiming leverage over Tehran; five sanctioned Chinese refiners remain a live pressure point. A framework agreement on trade or technology within 60 days is a roughly even chance, per predominantly Chinese sourcing, though Beijing's eagerness may leave Trump positioned to extract concessions without any Taiwan language shift.
4 sources
  1. High Hopes in Beijing About Trump-Xi Summit - Stimson Center
  2. Xi, confident in China's power, is ready to host an unpredictable Trump - The Washington Post
  3. Trump-Xi summit comes with high stakes for Taiwan, the island democracy that China claims as its own - The Washington Times
  4. China confirms Xi-Trump summit that was delayed by Iran war - The Spokesman-Review

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