Middle East — 2026-10-06

Saudi-Backed Yemeni Forces Claim Control of Bab al-Mandeb Strait as 100 Coalition Jets Join Offensive

BLUFSaudi-backed forces' seizure of the Bab al-Mandeb coastal corridor cuts Houthi southern supply lines, making a Houthi recapture of Mokha or Dhubab airport very unlikely by October 20.

Yemeni military spokesman Col Majed al-Nuzaili said on Monday that government forces secured Bab al-Mandeb, Dhubab airport and the Dhubab-Mokha road, and began an offensive toward Sanaa. The National and CNN noted the claims were unverified 12. The state news agency Saba reported that Nation's Shield, Giants Brigades and Tihama Resistance forces took Mokha, which Houthi deputy Taiz governor Fuad Sinan denied in a video filmed in the city 34. Coalition spokesman Maj Gen Turki al-Maliki said 100 fighter jets were participating and 324 high-value targets were destroyed 12. Houthi-run media reported airstrikes near Sanaa that killed at least two civilians, and the Houthi-run HOCC warned airlines that Saudi airspace was unsafe 12. Independent analyst Mohammed al-Basha reported "high confidence" that Dhubab airport was retaken 3.

Analysis
A Houthi recapture of Mokha or Dhubab airport, confirmed by two independent major outlets by October 20, is very unlikely. Government forces now hold the coastal road that supplied Houthi units in the south, and coalition air cover over Bab al-Mandeb is one the Houthis cannot contest. Their response so far has been strikes on Saudi targets and an airline warning, not a coastal counterattack. Confidence is moderate because battlefield claims on both sides are unverified, and the independent reporting base is narrow: The National carries the primary reporting while the other outlets relay the same Saba and coalition statements. The coast may stay contested, trading hands in small raids neither side can confirm, since Houthis appear still present in Mokha and the government force is fractured. Houthi gains are more likely around Taiz and the Taiz-Aden highway. If no recapture occurs, shippers and insurers can begin planning a partial reopening of Bab al-Mandeb.

4 sources