Experts Dispute ATA's First-Ever Pakistan ICBM Threat Assessment; Gabbard Says Missiles Could Strike Homeland

The 2026 ATA for the first time names Pakistan as a significant nuclear threat, with DNI Gabbard testifying that Islamabad's long-range ballistic missile development 'potentially could include ICBMs with the range capable of striking the Homeland.' Non-proliferation experts pushed back sharply, noting Pakistan has no missile exceeding 2,750 km range and that its program remains focused on regional deterrence against India rather than global strike capability. The analytic disagreement highlights a gap between the IC's forward-looking threat characterization and the current state of Pakistani missile technology.