Putin Proposes Three-Way Summit With Trump and Xi on Ukraine Excluding Zelensky

Analysis
Moscow gains from the proposal even if it fails, because it casts Kyiv as an obstacle and invites Washington to treat Ukraine's exclusion as negotiable. Trump's October 18 post shows he wants Russia engaged, but it commits him to nothing on a format that bars Zelensky and would alarm European capitals. It is unlikely that the White House or Trump publicly confirms attendance at a three-way summit with Putin and Xi by November 30, 2026. Putin may instead have floated the summit mainly to extract sanctions relief and diesel market access, with no expectation that Xi or Trump would convene without Ukraine. The shift from unilateral gestures like the Victory Day ceasefire to a great-power forum bypassing Kyiv matters because the October 9 diesel arrangement gives Washington a concrete economic stake in the channel. Confidence is low: every report traces to the Wall Street Journal and one anonymous former Russian intelligence officer, with no confirmation from Washington, Moscow or Beijing. If Washington confirms, Kyiv and European governments must press for a seat and plan for a framework set without them. If not, sanctions and aid coordination can stay on existing timelines.