Senate Passes Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act 86-11 Authorizing 500 Percent Tariffs on Russian Goods

Analysis
House action is likely within the next three months, by November 8, given the Senate's lopsided margin and Speaker Johnson's public receptiveness to a negotiated text, notwithstanding the chamber's recess until September. The bill's coercive value will still depend on executive follow-through, not statutory command, since White House-negotiated waivers leave Trump free to decline every tariff and sanctions trigger the text creates. We have high confidence in this judgment. Sponsor statements, the size of the Senate vote, and the Speaker's public statements converge on the same signal of House movement, though none speaks to whether Trump will ultimately invoke the authority once enacted. The bill's sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet and financial institutions should be read alongside reporting on state-backed payment networks that already process roughly 20 percent of Russia's foreign trade through cryptocurrency and shell intermediaries.