Iran Instructs Houthis to Prepare Bab al-Mandeb Closure if US Strikes Power Grid, Opening Second Maritime Chokepoint

Analysis
Iran's leadership has directed the Houthis to close Bab al-Mandeb if Washington strikes the power grid, with IRGC representatives in Yemen, not Houthi commanders, controlling launch timing, indicating Tehran retains operational authority over any escalation rather than delegating it. Forward-deployed missiles and drones will likely trigger attacks on shipping within 30 days of a US grid strike but function as deterrent signaling absent that trigger, consistent with a year of Houthi restraint despite maintained capability; the conditional framing may be aimed chiefly at raising the cost of a US strike rather than reflecting a genuine operational plan. Closure would compound Hormuz disruption and strain Saudi Arabia's Yanbu reroute, forcing CENTCOM to split escort and mine-countermeasure assets across two chokepoints. Confidence is low: no independent corroboration of internal Iranian or Houthi deliberations exists, and the triggering strike has not occurred to test whether the threat converts to action. Four-outlet pickup rests on a single Reuters exclusive with no independent primary sourcing.