Diplomatic — 2026-11-15

Kremlin Publishes Maximalist List of Demands for Ending War Including NATO Exit and Moldova, Finland Concessions

BLUFMoscow's maximalist Abu Dhabi package functions less as a serious opening bid than as a probe to split NATO allies by forcing them to debate their own security guarantees.

At the Abu Dhabi talks on November 10-11, the Russian delegation circulated a document dated November 10 that the New York Times, as relayed by Rubryka and Novaya Gazeta Europe, said revives Moscow's 2021 demands, including NATO withdrawal to 1997 borders and an end to Western arms deliveries to Ukraine 12. The Times report also says Russia wants France and the UK to rule out using nuclear weapons to defend other European states 13. Bild, as cited by The Moscow Times and Meduza, reported separate demands that Finland leave NATO and that Moldova become a federation, with referendum rights for Transnistria and Gagauzia if it joins the EU 45. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied any demand on Finland 4, and Finnish Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen said Finland's NATO status is not open to negotiation 6.

Analysis
The Abu Dhabi package, if the Kremlin pursues it, would put NATO's post-1997 force posture and British and French nuclear guarantees to other European states at the center of any settlement, shifting the talks from Ukraine to European security architecture. Russian delegates called the paper an opening position, and Washington's envoys replied that conditions have altered since December 2021. Finland and the Baltic states cannot be bound without consent, and Helsinki refuses to discuss membership, so those items work as bargaining chips against Belarus and Transnistria concessions. The list may instead be an inflated anchor from a rival mediator group, meant to be traded down, and no source shows which list Putin backs. It also contradicts his May 9 claim that the war was ending. Confidence is low: the case rests on one New York Times document and one Bild account, both relayed secondhand, and Peskov denies the Finland demand.

7 sources