Allied Intelligence — 2026-10-07

German BND and BfV Chiefs Warn Russia Shadow War Against Europe Entering Dangerous New Phase With Sabotage and Espionage

BLUFMoscow's shift to sabotage and assassination on German soil transforms Russia's shadow war from an intelligence nuisance into an operational threat that will force NATO to define red lines for sub-threshold attacks.

BND president Martin Jäger told the Bundestag's Parliamentary Control Committee that Russia's "shadow war" has taken on "a new, more dangerous character" and that Germany risks being drawn into a violent conflict with Russia, according to AFP via Courthouse News 1 and National Security News 2. Jäger said his agency sees "no indication" of a planned major attack on a NATO member but that smaller actions resembling Crimea's "little green men" could occur, particularly in the Baltic states 1. BfV president Sinan Selen said Russian operations now include sabotage and assassinations, with defence industry and military infrastructure targeted and Moscow accepting the risk of civilian casualties 1. National Security News reported that officials cited an August explosive-laden drone found near a Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig/Halle Airport, with German authorities pointing to evidence of Russian involvement 2.

Analysis
German intelligence now treats Russian sabotage and assassination as an operating campaign, with defence firms and military infrastructure named as targets. Jäger sees no indication of a planned major attack on a NATO member, but small deniable actions in the Baltic states, modelled on Crimea in 2014, could test a NATO that has no agreed trigger for an unmarked incursion. Russia's growing use of locally recruited low-level agents and criminal groups slows attribution and preserves deniability. Expanded German powers could shift Berlin from monitoring to disruption in the coming months. All reporting traces to one AFP account, so nothing independently corroborates the testimony, and the warnings may partly serve to build support for those powers and for Ukraine aid, running ahead of any change in Russian behaviour.

4 sources

German spy chief warns 'shadow war' with Russia is escalating - Courthouse News Service
German intelligence warns Russia shadow war against Europe entering dangerous new phase - National Security News
German intelligence chief warns of 'violent conflict with Russia' - Kyiv Independent
Foreign intelligence chief says Germany is Russia's 'number one target' in Europe - The Local Germany