Americas — 2026-10-06

Flavio Bolsonaro Wins Brazil First Round With 47 Percent Setting Up Runoff Against Lula

BLUFBolsonaro is likely to win the October 25 runoff, giving Brazil a president backed by the largest congressional blocs in both chambers.

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro led the first round with about 47 percent of valid votes to President Lula's 44.9 percent, with nearly 99 percent counted, according to Al Jazeera and Fox News 12. Brazil's electoral court confirmed an October 25 runoff because neither candidate cleared 50 percent 13. Al Jazeera reported that most final polls had Lula finishing first, and that Lula called the result "unexpected" 1. Fox News reported Bolsonaro won São Paulo 52 to 38 percent and Rio de Janeiro 53 to 39 percent, while Lula carried Bahia, Pernambuco and Ceará 2. The Conversation reported that Bolsonaro's Liberal Party won the largest blocs in both congressional chambers and five state governments 4. Al Jazeera said Caiado and Santos, who together drew about 5.3 million votes, have said they will not endorse either runoff candidate 1.

Analysis
Flavio Bolsonaro is likely to win the October 25 runoff, with the electoral court's declaration expected within days of the vote. We have high confidence, because vote counts and the runoff date are consistent across all four outlets, though none is primary and the figures trace to the same electoral count. His first-place finish upended final polls that mostly had Lula ahead. Part of his gain was a protest vote analysts expected only in round two, so he may already be near his ceiling, and Lula's Northeast turnout machinery could close the gap over three weeks. Caiado and Santos, with 5.3 million votes and no endorsement, decide the margin through turnout. A Bolsonaro win would give him a friendlier Congress, putting amnesty for his father on the table, while a Lula win means continued gridlock and tension with Washington.

4 sources

Brazil's presidential race: Three key takeaways from the first round - Al Jazeera
Flavio Bolsonaro defeats Lula in first round of Brazilian presidential election - Fox News
Brazil presidential election heads to runoff as Bolsonaro leads Lula - France 24
Brazil elections 2026: First-round victories demand a commitment to democracy by the far-right - The Conversation