Middle East — 2026-09-07

Hormuz Shipping Traffic Falls to Lowest Level Since May After US and Iranian Strikes on Vessels

BLUFDeliberate tanker targeting by both US and Iranian forces has collapsed Hormuz traffic and makes VLCC transit through September 14 unlikely, eroding the last firebreak between combat and global oil supply.

Shipping data from analytics firm Kpler showed the 10-day moving average of commodity vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to 10 per day on Sunday, down from more than 15 on Friday and nearly 13 on Saturday, marking the lowest level since May 123. Only two vessels transited on Saturday and six on Sunday, most using the Iranian route 12. US Central Command said US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one off Kharg Island, after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked US warships in the region 123. The IRGC navy said it retaliated by targeting three tankers, identified by maritime intelligence firm Marisks as Downy, Stark I and Kylo, for using unauthorized routes, plus three additional US vessels elsewhere 123. UKMTO's weekly report counted 27 projectile strikes on vessels in and around the strait since July 6, and Kpler and LSEG data showed no VLCC has exited the strait since Wednesday, with one refined-products tanker turned back from a Saudi port 13.

Analysis
The traffic collapse to 10 daily transits and zero VLCC exits since Wednesday signal shippers are avoiding Hormuz outright rather than merely favoring Iran's coastal lane, and the shift from military-on-military strikes to deliberate tanker targeting removes the prior firebreak between combat and commercial shipping. At least one VLCC transiting the strait through September 14 is unlikely. Confidence is low, resting on a single Reuters dispatch citing Kpler's proprietary figures without independent corroboration. The dip could also reflect short-term shipper caution around one weekend of strikes rather than a durable routing shift, since VLCC exits have only been absent since Wednesday. Continued IRGC tanker strikes and CENTCOM's retaliatory posture point toward sustained rather than de-escalating pressure. Energy-security planners should treat blockade-like conditions as entrenched and accelerate alternative crude-routing contingencies unless a VLCC transit signals the corridor is tentatively passable again.

5 sources

Hormuz traffic dips to lowest since May after US, Iranian strikes on ships - Rappler
Hormuz traffic dips to lowest since May after US, Iranian strikes on ships - Arab News (Reuters)
Hormuz traffic dips to lowest since May after US, Iranian strikes on ships - BOE Report (Reuters)
Hormuz Traffic Dips to Lowest Since May After US, Iranian Strikes on Ships - Newsmax (Reuters)
Hormuz traffic dips to lowest since May after US, Iranian strikes on ships - Reuters