Allied Intelligence — 2026-06-24

Shin Bet Chief Warns Next October 7 Style Attack Could Target Eilat From Jordan or Sea

BLUFZini's warning without a disclosed intelligence basis forces Israeli southern command to resource against a structurally plausible but unsubstantiated threat vector at the expense of validated priorities.

Haaretz reported on June 22, citing several unnamed security sources, that Shin Bet chief David Zini warned in closed-door discussions that "the next October 7 will be in Eilat" 1. According to the report, Zini directed senior agency officials to prioritize attack scenarios on the city, warning specifically of ground infiltration from Jordan and a possible maritime approach from the Red Sea 23. Security officials quoted in the reporting questioned the intelligence basis, with some within the Shin Bet characterizing the scenario as speculative and saying they did not know what information Zini was relying on 24. The Shin Bet subsequently issued a public statement saying there is "no concrete information or warning" of an attack on Eilat, describing the Eilat visit as routine threat study conducted as part of Zini's assumption of office 23.

Analysis
The disconnect forces Israeli southern command into a planning dilemma: resource against scenarios the Shin Bet publicly disclaims, or accept under-investment risk if the chief's private assessment proves prescient. When Zini's own staff cannot identify his intelligence basis, the assessment reflects conceptual vulnerability mapping rather than collected threat reporting. Eilat's structural exposure through the Jordanian corridor and Red Sea approaches remains genuine regardless. Haaretz's single-source framing, citing unnamed security officials, may have elevated doctrinal planning language into a specific warning, making the agency's disclaimer accurate rather than a retraction. The Iran mass-arrest wave meanwhile threatens the collection architecture that would produce the warning Zini's staff says is absent.

4 sources

Shin Bet chief believes 'next October 7' attack will be in Israel's Eilat - Haaretz
Shin Bet chief warns Eilat could be target of next Oct. 7-style attack - Ynet News
Next October 7 attack may happen in Eilat, Shin Bet head David Zini says - report - The Jerusalem Post
Shin Bet chief said to fear Oct 7-style attack on Eilat, despite no intel on threat - Times of Israel