Estonian FM Says Russia Deliberately Directing Ukrainian Drones Into NATO Territory as SVR Threatens Baltic Decision Centers

Analysis
Whether at least one additional intrusion occurs before July 7 is genuinely uncertain, but the campaign already delivers strategic returns disproportionate to drone counts. Latvia's government has collapsed and the SVR has publicly named Latvian decision centers as targets. Moderate confidence reflects broad allied open-source corroboration without independent signals intelligence on the underlying electronic warfare operations; EADaily functions as an SVR conduit, not an independent source. Electronic warfare jamming over Russian territory may suffice to explain the Baltic violations without deliberate Kremlin redirection toward NATO airspace. Baltic air policing adaptation and Ukrainian navigational corrections, if sustained, degrade the diversion mechanism and remove Moscow's kinetic pretext. A confirmed additional intrusion before July 7 forces NATO decisions on preemptive intercept authority and intensifies pressure on Kyiv to constrain long-range strikes.